Finding Solutions to Future Warfare
Often we look at the future with the lens of the past. Often wondering how we design the better weapon for future battles. However, we often miss changes in warfare as we look to redesign the weapons, force structure, and tactics to battle against tomorrow’s adversaries.
As we look to the future, perhaps it is best to define complicated from complex problems. Complicated problems are those that are difficult but can be broken down into small steps that can be solved by a technical solution or process adaptation. Complex or sometimes called wicked problems are those that are adaptive and ever-changing in nature, sort of a system of systems construct, that prevent linear solutions. Cracking complexity offers additional insights on how to solve problems:
Kevin Kelly offers a few ideas about the future and how technology will impact it. Of note, he discusses the impact of artificial intelligence and how it will create the next industrial revolution.
He describes three things we must understand in future AI trends 1- How to define intelligence, 2- How to use AI for future industrial applications, and 3- How to integrate robotics into the future workforce. His discussion of the future of AI also impacts how the defense industry will adapt to new emerging technologies.
It was interesting in reviewing the recent Wikipedia report of emerging technologies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emerging_technologies. I find it odd that the list focused on a very regimented description of technologies by career field. In reviewing the military section, the emerging technologies focused on very kinetic weapon systems or force protection devices. This list failed to consider the impact of other technologies related to the military and national defense. Perhaps a better perspective should encompass emerging cyber, space, entertainment, and IT communication developments in relation to future warfare.
The future holds many possibilities and challenges for the military and defense establishment. The pace of technology changes often exceeds current procurement and training establishments. Some of our challenges can be binned into the following areas:
Solvable Problems
- Recruiting quality soldiers
- Talent Management of personnel
- Leveraging AI for back office admin work
Difficult Problems
- Developing weapons for overmatch of adversary directed energy weapons, air defense, and missiles
- Overcoming institutional change and reorganization of force structure for future combat
- Developing doctrine and methods for engaging in persistent conflict against peer adversaries
- Understanding Computer generated imagery and its impact on disinformation and grey-zone warfare
- Leveraging AI for intelligence analysis
Wicked Challenges
- Quantum encryption and its impact on intelligence operations
- Artificial intelligence and its use in command and control of weapon systems
- Terrorist use of cyber weapons
- Preventing gene manipulation of humans to provide super human strength / intelligence / warrior skills
These challenges combined with emerging technology trends will drastically impact how we train, organize and equip for future warfare. The greatest change will be understanding that technology advances and the interconnected world places a nation in an era of persistent engagement/conflict. A nation’s ability to adapt its mentality to engage in this future will determine its destiny.
Thank you for the important military context for this presentation. Do you see any issues with adoption emanating from generational viewpoints in the chain of command (seniority and capability being the basis for promotion, but also perhaps an inhibitor in terms of the views on technology)?
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteIt can be a generational gap at times. However, there are many senior leaders who embrace the tech change. One of the concerns is technology sometimes isn’t as expensive and mass produced like weapon systems, so elected officials sometimes don’t embrace the future of warfare since it doesn’t create as many jobs as major weapon systems.
Thank you. I had not considered the procurement/"back in the district" dynamics. That is helpful perspective.
DeleteI appreciated your take on emerging technologies as it applies within the military context. I really liked your notion of differentiating between complex and challenging problems. However, I have mixed thoughts on the information that was provided in the link you posted, especially as it applies to leadership’s role in problem solving. On the one hand, I agree with the notion that it’s not about “the problem you’re solving” and more about “how you’re approaching problem-solving”. On the other hand, I don’t necessarily agree with the notion that a leader’s responsibility is to provide answers or to be decisive. In my opinion, I think this traditional leader-centric view on leadership is starting to become outdated and not able to effectively solve the types of complex and real-world problems that are existing in today’s work environments. Instead, I continually observe work contexts becoming more peer-like and less hierarchical, with a need for more collaboration and interdisciplinary approaches for problem-solving. In this sense, the notion of leadership is less top-down and resembles more of a co-constructed social process. In your experience, have you observed any shifts in the nature of leadership within military contexts or foresee changes in the role of leadership in the future?
ReplyDeleteAlso, Kelly’s (2018) video about “the mesh” talks about the benefits that immersion of virtual reality and presence of mixed reality will bring in the future due to advancements in technology and artificial intelligence. Likewise, Kelly (2018) suggests these inevitable technological changes will also create more “scary” problems. It especially makes me cautious and concerned about who will become the gatekeepers of this new world, to whom Kelly (2018) describes will be very powerful indeed. I really liked your categorization of solvable problems, difficult problems, and wicked challenges. As you mentioned, it also makes me wonder about what the future holds as it relates to maintaining safety, security, and the ability to prevent or mitigate conflict (as you mentioned). But the question I have, then, is what value does leadership have or what impact can leadership have in a world in which Kelly envisions as being so decentralized and with everything eventually being shared and accessible from any device? I know this is a very loaded and hypothetical question, but it makes me think - how can future leadership exercise more control and order to prevent total chaos from occurring?
References
Kelly, K. (June 1, 2018). The emerging v-cloud. TNW Conference 2018. Retrieved from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjbTiRbeNpM
Your comment of viewing leadership and technology in a social construct resonated with me. As technology advances, leaders may need a higher emotional intelligence level to navigate the complexity of interconnected relationships and social dynamics.
DeleteVery nice post. While I believe you are using the right definition of artificial intelligence, the definition is flawed. Without defining AI, everyone needs to understand that AI is the incomplete process of learning not a product. The product that comes from AI is the answer. The answer is the usable product. Leveraging AI, I take as having learned what the inputs mean and returning an answer that is understood by the human. As such had you written, leveraging AI for use in command and control of weapons systems, there would be very little for me to comment on. AI is only as good as the information it has been fed and will derive answers based on what it knows. AI is not a search engine for answers, like 20 question engines. When weapons are tested they must perform to a standard, that standard requires the same situation being identified and reacted to in the same way. AI will not always return the same answer, it is learning. Automation will return the same answer every time and is a product of AI. AI cannot be controlled morally but automation can. None of this makes the problem any easier, using the computer to make life and death decisions is a human problem--we are cable of making weapons that are all automated.
ReplyDeleteDo you believe problems are created by technology or by humans? Chris commented on "adoption anxiety" in another blog, do you believe this is part of the problem? Do you believe wicked problems require Black Swan solutions, is the paradigm shift that big? If I tell you the computer can do the job 100% of the time am I believable? Is anything less than 100% acceptable for fully automated execution? Why can ballistic missile be fully automated?
The problem on the horizon is when AI is able to compute an answer that is not understood by the human but every test produces the answer as the AI said it would...Quantum encryption solutions?
KP92– great comments. Perhaps a hypothetical example on AI and command and control would help to spur a healthy debate.
DeleteA squadron of aircraft are in flight with 32 weapon systems. The enemy has 75 various targets. Only 18 are the high payoff targets. If AI can help discern the top target to fire on in nanoseconds does the plane automatically fire the weapons at high payoff targets to prevent the pilot from expending rounds on their perceived highest. threat? Could AI help alleviate the problem of expending rounds before killing the top threats in a combat situation ?
You also have several other questions I would like to take a few days to answer. AI and it’s future aha many facets. Perhaps you are on to something with a Black Swan solution as we view the future.
I think Karl's point is already here - see this post by David Weinberger from 2 years ago - https://www.wired.com/story/our-machines-now-have-knowledge-well-never-understand/
DeleteAnd while kinetic weapons tend to be the focus, it does not hurt to think about less "shock and awe" aspects that still could have impacts - https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612689/never-mind-killer-robotshere-are-six-real-ai-dangers-to-watch-out-for-in-2019/
Thanks for the insights! Very interesting readings.
ReplyDelete